Logarithm you have to go along with – Bitcoin soon at 300,000 US dollars?
The crypto analysts at Kraken are forecasting a ceiling between 75,000 – 306,000 US dollars for the current price cycle.
Analysts at crypto exchange Kraken conclude in their latest monthly situation report that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a high between US$75,000 and US$306,000 before the end of this record run.
In their analysis report, the Bitcoin Champion crypto market researchers refer to a Bitcoin price chart in logarithmic representation (pages 14 and 15), in which interim highs and the lows of the subsequent declines are plotted.
From these values they in turn derive the further price development, which would thus enter the area of a ceiling formation at 75,000 US dollars. Here the high of the current record run should then crystallise, they say :
„Based on the previous price cycles, it is likely that Bitcoin will slowly continue to gain before bouncing higher and reaching a final resistance point that marks the end of the fourth major uptrend.“
However, the range in which this ceiling formation is completed is broad, according to the Kraken analysts‘ forecast. To determine this value more precisely, they first calculate the bottom, which they estimate will occur in a period of 365 days after the end of February 2021. They see a price of 30,000 US dollars as a possible bottom.
Starting from this low point, the crypto market researchers venture a more precise calculation of the possible high points by tracing various scenarios for the „retracement“, i.e. the downturn, to this low.
So if Bitcoin were to slide in this uptrend by retracing 70% back to $30,000, it would need a high of $102,000 beforehand.
A 90 % decline would in turn require the market-leading cryptocurrency to reach a new record high of 306,000 US dollars. Even the average downturn after the previous major uptrends, which is 86 %, would mean a price target of 221,000 US dollars. Accordingly, the analysts conclude that Bitcoin is „still far away“ from the top of the current cycle.
Moreover, the research report shows that the first quarter of 2021 was the third best quarter ever for the crypto market leader in terms of percentage return and volatility.
March is actually historically bad for Bitcoin, as only twice so far has the cryptocurrency been able to end the month with a relative gain over the previous month.
On average, growth in March was 11% weaker than in February
In addition, the analysts note that Bitcoin is currently performing similarly to the first quarter of 2013, which was the strongest Q1 in the history of the cryptocurrency so far. The two quarters have a correlation of 0.82, which could be additional evidence that Bitcoin is still on an upward trend.
As we go to press, the price has now managed to end five months in a row with a gain, something that has only been achieved once before, and that was in the run-up to the boom of 2017 and the subsequent long-term record high. So is Bitcoin possibly on the verge of such a price explosion again? If Kraken has its way, the answer is clearly positive.